TWIB Notes 7/11
This week’s addition will be the Mid-Season awards addition. I will give the top 3 candidates in each category and then pick a winner. Also I will re-forecast the end of the season awards and playoff teams.
AL MVP:
Brian Roberts .350 BA 1.020 OPS 18 SB 22 2B
Manny Ramirez .274 BA 22 HR 80 RBI
Mark Teixeira .290 BA 24 HR 71 RBI 21 2B
For everything that Roberts has done for the Orioles, the fact that the Red Sox are now in first gives the edge to Manny. This guy just produce’s game in and game out. His numbers sky rocket with runners in scoring position, with an average of .344 and OPS of 1.237. He changes the entire complexion of his team’s line-up; he is the best run producer in the game for a first place team; that says MVP to me.
In the second half I look for Hideki Matsui to continue his scorching season. He got off to a slow start, but the rebirth of the Yankees can be directly related to this guys hitting. His averaged has climbed all season long and has found his power stroke, and next to Manny he is the best run producer in the league, batting .336 with RISP. The most amazing stat to describe Matsui is that he is batting 30 points higher against left handed pitching, that doesn’t even make sense.
AL Cy Young:
Roy Halladay 12-4 2.41 ERA 0.96 WHIP 108 SO
Mark Buehrle 10-3 2.54 ERA 1.11 WHIP
Jon Garland 13-4 3.38 ERA 1.08 WHIP .247 BAA
Hey Jon and Mark, thanks for playing but this is Roy Halladay in a runaway. Halladay has been virtually un-hittable all year; it is a shame for the Blue Jays that he broke a bone in his leg. He was on his way of topping is Cy young season of 2003 (22-7 3.25).
Now with Halladay out of the way the door is one for Mark Buerhle or Kenny Rogers. Rogers is going to be hurt by his suspension, missing up to 4 starts. I think Buerhle can continue his good season, he has shown flashes of this brilliance in his career and I look for him to finish with about 20-22 wins with a sub 3.00 ERA.
AL Manager:
Ozzie Guillen, Chicago White Sox
Eric Wedge, Cleveland Indians
Lee Mazzilli, Baltimore Orioles
Ozzie Guillen is hands down the AL Manager of the first half. He has taken a team that nobody thought would be any good and has kept them atop the AL all season long. He has a pitching staff of mostly washed up guys and has gotten them to perform. And then he has gone with the offensive theory of speed and defense, two things Guillen did well when he played.
I look for Guillen’s team to continue to play well and win the Division going away, which will keep Guillen as the odds on favorite. My second half dark horse is Eric Wedge of the Indians. His team has the best pitching staff top to bottom in the league and their offense is beginning to wake up. If things continue this way they may be able to snag the wild card spot away from the Eastern Division 2nd place team.
NL MVP:
Derrek Lee .374 BA 27 HR 72 RBI .733 SLG
Albert Pujols .338 BA 22 HR 69 RBI 44 BB
Bobby Abreu .307 BA 18 HR 58 RBI 21 SB
This is a pretty close contest. Albert Pujols is the best hitter in the game, though Lee is matching him stride for stride this season. Pujols is also doing for the best team in baseball, while they scorch the NL competition. However, Lee is having one of those career seasons and deserves to be the MVP so far. He is only 4 RBI short of being the Triple Crown winner at the mid way point of the season.
Lee is beginning to feel the weight of carrying his team, literally, and is battling a shoulder injury. Pujols is as consistent as it comes, and by seasons end he will once again be in contention for the Triple Crown as his team walks away with the NL Central crown.
NL Cy Young:
Pedro Martinez 10-3 2.72 ERA 0.84 WHIP .185 BAA 138 SO
Dontrelle Willis 13-4 2.39 ERA 1.14 WHIP 5 CG 4 SHO
Roger Clemens 7-3 1.48 ERA 0.95 WHIP .188 BAA 22 R
On top of the three candidates named, Roy Oswalt, Chris Carpenter, and John Smoltz all have a shot at this award too. But at midseason this is all Roger Clemens, what he is doing is simply nasty. He has given up 22 runs, total, all season and we have played almost 90 games. On the road this season he has been virtual impossible to hit, with a .153 BAA and 0.20 ERA. He has started 18 games this year; he has given up 0 runs in 7 starts and only 1 run in 5 other starts.
This will be the most closely contested award down the stretch. Willis has a chance to put up 23 or more wins which will be unbelievable. Smoltz is getting better as the season goes along and Chris Carpenter will also get 20 plus wins because of the team he is on. I still look for Clemens to have 18 or so wins by seasons end and continue to have a sub 2.30 ERA, he is the toughest competitor out their and is in the best shape of anyone.
NL Manager:
Bobby Cox, Atlanta Braves
Frank Robinson, Washington Nationals
Tony LaRussa, St. Louis Cardinals
Tony LaRussa is the tough luck manager of the year, he has no chance of getting this award even though his team is 23 games over .500 and 11 game lead in their division. I really want to give this award to Bobby Cox; he has had 9 different starting pitchers (3 of his 5 starters are on the DL), his closer, who may be the best in the game, is their #1 starter, and he has had 4 rookies play 35 or more games in the field because of injuries to Chipper Jones, Johnny Estrada, Eddie Perez, Brian Jordan, and the Raul Mondesi experiment. But Frank Robinson is in first place with a team that does not have an owner, and have been vagabonds for the last 3 seasons. Even if you look at his teams stats there is no good reason why they win these games, except for the fact that they have one of the great baseball men of all time, Frank Robinson. He has managed his team perfectly, they ar 25-9 in 1 run games this year which speaks directly to the manager.
I do not think the Nationals can keep this up all season long, though Robinson will still get his share of votes come seasons end. But again if somehow Bobby Cox can lead the Braves to a 14th consecutive division title with all the problems that they have had this year, he should be the winner. Especially doing it in a division that is the most competitive in the Majors this year.
AL
East: Boston Red Sox
Central: Chicago White Sox
West: Los Angeles Angels
Wildcard: Cleveland Indians
NL
East: Atlanta Braves
Central: St. Louis Cardinals
West: San Diego Padres
Wildcard: Florida Marlins
AL MVP:
Brian Roberts .350 BA 1.020 OPS 18 SB 22 2B
Manny Ramirez .274 BA 22 HR 80 RBI
Mark Teixeira .290 BA 24 HR 71 RBI 21 2B
For everything that Roberts has done for the Orioles, the fact that the Red Sox are now in first gives the edge to Manny. This guy just produce’s game in and game out. His numbers sky rocket with runners in scoring position, with an average of .344 and OPS of 1.237. He changes the entire complexion of his team’s line-up; he is the best run producer in the game for a first place team; that says MVP to me.
In the second half I look for Hideki Matsui to continue his scorching season. He got off to a slow start, but the rebirth of the Yankees can be directly related to this guys hitting. His averaged has climbed all season long and has found his power stroke, and next to Manny he is the best run producer in the league, batting .336 with RISP. The most amazing stat to describe Matsui is that he is batting 30 points higher against left handed pitching, that doesn’t even make sense.
AL Cy Young:
Roy Halladay 12-4 2.41 ERA 0.96 WHIP 108 SO
Mark Buehrle 10-3 2.54 ERA 1.11 WHIP
Jon Garland 13-4 3.38 ERA 1.08 WHIP .247 BAA
Hey Jon and Mark, thanks for playing but this is Roy Halladay in a runaway. Halladay has been virtually un-hittable all year; it is a shame for the Blue Jays that he broke a bone in his leg. He was on his way of topping is Cy young season of 2003 (22-7 3.25).
Now with Halladay out of the way the door is one for Mark Buerhle or Kenny Rogers. Rogers is going to be hurt by his suspension, missing up to 4 starts. I think Buerhle can continue his good season, he has shown flashes of this brilliance in his career and I look for him to finish with about 20-22 wins with a sub 3.00 ERA.
AL Manager:
Ozzie Guillen, Chicago White Sox
Eric Wedge, Cleveland Indians
Lee Mazzilli, Baltimore Orioles
Ozzie Guillen is hands down the AL Manager of the first half. He has taken a team that nobody thought would be any good and has kept them atop the AL all season long. He has a pitching staff of mostly washed up guys and has gotten them to perform. And then he has gone with the offensive theory of speed and defense, two things Guillen did well when he played.
I look for Guillen’s team to continue to play well and win the Division going away, which will keep Guillen as the odds on favorite. My second half dark horse is Eric Wedge of the Indians. His team has the best pitching staff top to bottom in the league and their offense is beginning to wake up. If things continue this way they may be able to snag the wild card spot away from the Eastern Division 2nd place team.
NL MVP:
Derrek Lee .374 BA 27 HR 72 RBI .733 SLG
Albert Pujols .338 BA 22 HR 69 RBI 44 BB
Bobby Abreu .307 BA 18 HR 58 RBI 21 SB
This is a pretty close contest. Albert Pujols is the best hitter in the game, though Lee is matching him stride for stride this season. Pujols is also doing for the best team in baseball, while they scorch the NL competition. However, Lee is having one of those career seasons and deserves to be the MVP so far. He is only 4 RBI short of being the Triple Crown winner at the mid way point of the season.
Lee is beginning to feel the weight of carrying his team, literally, and is battling a shoulder injury. Pujols is as consistent as it comes, and by seasons end he will once again be in contention for the Triple Crown as his team walks away with the NL Central crown.
NL Cy Young:
Pedro Martinez 10-3 2.72 ERA 0.84 WHIP .185 BAA 138 SO
Dontrelle Willis 13-4 2.39 ERA 1.14 WHIP 5 CG 4 SHO
Roger Clemens 7-3 1.48 ERA 0.95 WHIP .188 BAA 22 R
On top of the three candidates named, Roy Oswalt, Chris Carpenter, and John Smoltz all have a shot at this award too. But at midseason this is all Roger Clemens, what he is doing is simply nasty. He has given up 22 runs, total, all season and we have played almost 90 games. On the road this season he has been virtual impossible to hit, with a .153 BAA and 0.20 ERA. He has started 18 games this year; he has given up 0 runs in 7 starts and only 1 run in 5 other starts.
This will be the most closely contested award down the stretch. Willis has a chance to put up 23 or more wins which will be unbelievable. Smoltz is getting better as the season goes along and Chris Carpenter will also get 20 plus wins because of the team he is on. I still look for Clemens to have 18 or so wins by seasons end and continue to have a sub 2.30 ERA, he is the toughest competitor out their and is in the best shape of anyone.
NL Manager:
Bobby Cox, Atlanta Braves
Frank Robinson, Washington Nationals
Tony LaRussa, St. Louis Cardinals
Tony LaRussa is the tough luck manager of the year, he has no chance of getting this award even though his team is 23 games over .500 and 11 game lead in their division. I really want to give this award to Bobby Cox; he has had 9 different starting pitchers (3 of his 5 starters are on the DL), his closer, who may be the best in the game, is their #1 starter, and he has had 4 rookies play 35 or more games in the field because of injuries to Chipper Jones, Johnny Estrada, Eddie Perez, Brian Jordan, and the Raul Mondesi experiment. But Frank Robinson is in first place with a team that does not have an owner, and have been vagabonds for the last 3 seasons. Even if you look at his teams stats there is no good reason why they win these games, except for the fact that they have one of the great baseball men of all time, Frank Robinson. He has managed his team perfectly, they ar 25-9 in 1 run games this year which speaks directly to the manager.
I do not think the Nationals can keep this up all season long, though Robinson will still get his share of votes come seasons end. But again if somehow Bobby Cox can lead the Braves to a 14th consecutive division title with all the problems that they have had this year, he should be the winner. Especially doing it in a division that is the most competitive in the Majors this year.
AL
East: Boston Red Sox
Central: Chicago White Sox
West: Los Angeles Angels
Wildcard: Cleveland Indians
NL
East: Atlanta Braves
Central: St. Louis Cardinals
West: San Diego Padres
Wildcard: Florida Marlins
7 Comments:
I'll keep this as short as I possibly can and Kris knows that's really hard for me.
I love the return of TWIB Notes. All we need now is the music...
I'm assuming you're taking the Indians in a close race with the Twins? Every year, everyone shits on the Twins and for the past three years, they'll laughed at the naysayers in the postseason.
In the NL, the West could be anybody, even the Giants if Bonds comes back and does a Willis Reed every other night and the old men decide to start hitting. Then again, Sabean could dismantle the whole team and get less than market value for Schmidt, who would then change the face of whatever team he was traded to. That guy is money in August and Sept...
I want to write off the Nationals, but they're doing this without Nick Johnson and will make a nice move before the deadline for another starting pitcher. My Mets proved their bullpen can be beat up, but you have to get to them early in the game and the series. I thought the Braves would do it at the start of the year and I want to change my mind, but there really isn't any reason.
My only beef is the NL Wild Card. This just in folks, the Marlins aren't that great. Their young pitching is starting to remind me of the Cubs. Their offense is dependent on Juan Pierre jumpstarting it and he's having an off year and do you know who their starting third baseman is? Here's a hint - It's not Mike Lowell on a daily basis.
If you've got Roger as the Cy Young winner and felt that Morgan Ensberg should have been selected, then why not take the Astros? Clemens, Oswalt and a healthy Pettite with Lidge closing the door is something to hang your hat on.
KEVIN BASS out
Nice post Kris, but I think you have to give David Ortiz the nod for AL MVP. His stats are right there with Manny, but his presence in that clubhouse is what keep The Sawx going. The division races will be fun to track. A three team race in the AL East now that the Yankees are playing baseball. That didvision will come down to who makes the biggest trade. Boston is already stacked, gets Schilling back and a big time trade could help them run away with it. The O's and Yankees will need their trades to address certain possition needs to stay in contention. As for the Central, the only certain thing there is that the Tigers and Royals are done. In the AL West, looks like the Angels are on their way, but they'll be chased by the Rangers and the resurging A's. Question is, will the Texas heat beat the Rangers again? Looking at the NL West, WHO CARES? The winner of that didvision will merely be a tune-up series in the first round for their opponent. The NL Central could be fun to watch. If the Astros keep playing at their current level they could make some noise. I don't think they'll catch St. Louis, though. And in the East, the Nationals are the feel good story. Unfortunately, they are only 2.5 games up on the Mississippi Braves. Just think what will happen when the Atlanta Braves get off of the DL. I think we're looking at Atlanta and St. Louis on the NLCS, and that could go either way, but I'll take the Cards. In the ALCS, it will be the Red Sox vs. whoever gets the Wildcard between the Yankees and Orioles. If Baltimore gets back on track, and they are getting Javy Lopez and Erik Bedard back, and the Yankees keep playing like they are now, I don't see anyone beating either team in a series. Anyway, I think Boston represents the Junior Circuit in the World Series, and probably wins it again.
David Ortiz for MVP??? That's the biggest crock of shit since I heard some fat loser say Jeter should be an All Star because he's in the commercial!!! No way a DH should ever win an MVP. That's like awarding the MVP to ray Allen for scoring 40 points a game but never coming across the half court line to play defense. A half way player should not and cannot be the MVP. To me the MVP is more then just offenseive stats. I agree that his presence in the clubhouse may be more important to any team, other then, ironically, Jeter, but if can't play defense and help your team win in the field, then you're just not contributing enough. If the AL didn't have a DH then Ortiz wouldn't even be in the game. I'd be surprised if Vlad doesn't win the award again.
If that's your theory, then Tom Brady, Joe Montana, and all those other offensive players should never win NFL or Super Bowl MVP's, because they never made a tackle, forced a fumble, or made an interception. Vlad is not known for defense, he is a hitter, so naming him MVP would be based on his offensive stats, so why would that exclude Ortiz.
Not true... Football is a different game. They have specialized players for offense and defense. Baseball and basketball do not. They have the same players play both. If basketball had an all time shooter position like a DH, then they should average about 60 points a game....is that an ideal basketball MVP? You can't compare NFL MVP's to NBA or MLB. Also Vlad is known for his defense. Not only is he a quality outfielder but he has one of the best arms in the game. Not many base runners will run on Vlad. My point about Ortiz is, that if you're going to be the "all time hitter" aka DH, then you better be the best hitter on your team and one of the best in the game. He's a solid hitter, but that's all he does so why is he so special??? A DH should hit .350+, 50 HR, and 160 RBI every year!!!! Cause that's their only job! Then you can give him all the MVP awards you want, until then you're just a fat useless turd with no position!
PS- no offense to Turd!!!
I started this and was happy with my comment until I read Keith's unnessesary remark about my boy, so you should have saw this coming.
yes, Reyes hasn't seen many pitches that he doesn't like, which is why he'll led the NL in At Bats this year (395 to Brady Clark's 382), he currently eighth in the NL in hits with 103 (ahead of Furcal and Pierre), tied for second in the NL with 27 SB's and lead the NL with 9 triples.
Yes, he's a .261 hitter and his .287 OBP is horrible, but he is also 22 in his first complete MLB season, so lay off, shut your pie hole and get back in the kitchen to make me some more pasta...
Is Kris ever going to post anything new? I know he's not busy, because the basketball coaches call my office looking for him.
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